We are excited to share a snippet from Mira Murati’s recent interview, where she discussed the evolving intelligence of GPT models. Mira likened GPT-3 to young children, GPT-4 to high school students, and projected that within the next year and a half, we might see models reaching PhD-level intelligence for specific tasks. 🎓🤖
📹 Watch the interview here: YouTube Link
What caught my attention was the similarity to a thesis from Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead by Leopold Aschenbrenner. His predictions, based on training computations, suggested:
• GPT-2 was at a preschool level 🧸
• GPT-3 at an elementary school level 📚
• GPT-4 at an intelligent high school level 🧑🎓
• PhD-level models are on the horizon 🎓🔭
This similarity likely isn’t coincidental. I see three possibilities:
1. This might be a common internal framework at OpenAI.
2. Mira developed this perspective independently.
3. Mira was influenced by Leopold’s work.
I believe it’s almost certainly the first, as the timelines align closely with those of OpenAI’s in-house philosopher and predictor, Daniel Kokotajlo. His role involved assessing technological development timelines and planning integration measures. He predicted AGI by 2027, the same year OpenAI aimed to complete the now-defunct Superalignment project, preparing for superintelligence. 🧠✨
Regardless of your stance on these predictions, it’s intriguing to consider that this could be a reflection of OpenAI’s internal vision and forecasts, guiding their discussions and strategic planning. They envision achieving AGI (defined as expert-level in most economically significant tasks) in 3-4 years. This doesn’t imply that GPT-X will replace humans in most jobs due to regulations, implementation challenges, and potential human resistance. Such a system could be developed but not announced, or announced but held back until regulations are in place.
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